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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."